MDOT Analytics : Timing Your Market
MDOT Analytics : Timing Your Market
The Market Direction of Travel (MDOT) Scoring System is a data-driven approach to tracking and ranking real estate sub-markets based on their momentum. Unlike traditional market reports that focus on static numbers, MDOT identifies market trends over time helping INVESTORS, BUILDERS, REAL ESTATE BROKERS, and PROFESSIONAL UNDERWRITERS protect their assets .
MDOT tracks the three key market fundamentals:
By measuring whether these indicators increase or decrease compared to the same month last year, MDOT creates a performance score for each sub-market—allowing users to track trends, rank markets, and identify opportunities. Traditional market reports give you numbers—median prices, inventory levels, sales counts—but they don't tell you where the market is going. You need to see the bigger picture. You need a way to measure momentum, to understand whether a market is heating up, cooling down, or staying steady.
The Market Direction of Travel (MDOT) Scoring System tracks real estate market momentum by measuring how often Price, Supply, and Demand have increased over the past 12 months, using a year-over-year comparison.
Let’s say you’re analyzing a specific sub-market. Here’s what MDOT looks at:
The result? MDOT Score: 6-12-2 (Price-Supply-Demand).
Each score also represents the probability that the trend will continue next month.
With this data, you now see more than just numbers—you see market momentum.
MDOT scores rank and compare sub-markets by sorting their Price, Demand, and Supply scores in a specific order. This ranking system helps identify which markets are gaining momentum and which may be weakening, allowing investors, agents, and lenders to make data-driven decisions.
Each sub-market receives an MDOT score in the format Price-Demand-Supply (e.g., 8-10-4). The ranking process follows these steps:
Consider five sub-markets with the following MDOT scores:
Markets A and B have the highest Price score (10), so they rank first. Markets C, D, and E follow, all with a Price score of 9.
Between Market A (10-7-5) and Market B (10-5-4), Market A ranks higher because its Demand score (7) is greater than Market B’s (5).
Among the markets with a Price score of 9, Market C (9-8-6) and Market D (9-8-5) rank ahead of Market E (9-6-3) because their Demand scores (8) are higher than Market E’s (6).
Market C and Market D both have Price = 9 and Demand = 8, so Supply determines their ranking. Since Market D has a lower Supply score (5) than Market C (6), Market D ranks higher.
This structured approach ensures objective, data-driven market comparisons, making it easier to navigate real estate investments with confidence.
MDOT scores provide a structured way to analyze Price, Supply, and Demand movements across sub-markets over time. By tracking how each sub-market's scores change from month to month, investors, agents, and lenders can estimate the probability of future market conditions and anticipate shifts in real estate performance.
Each MDOT score represents how often a variable (Price, Supply, Demand) has increased year-over-year over the past 12 months. For example, a Price score of 8 means that Price increased 8 out of the last 12 months when compared to the same month in the prior year. The same logic applies to Supply and Demand.
Since MDOT tracks how often a variable has increased year-over-year over the past 12 months, it can be used to estimate the probability of that variable increasing in the following month.
For example, if a sub-market’s Price score is 8, then Price has increased in 8 of the past 12 months, giving it an estimated 67% probability (8/12) of increasing next month. The same probability model applies to Supply and Demand.
By tracking MDOT scores over time, patterns emerge that help decision-makers estimate future market conditions:
✅ Markets with rising Price and Demand scores and declining Supply scores are strengthening.
✅ Markets with falling Price and Demand scores and rising Supply scores are weakening.
✅ Markets with stable scores indicate a balanced environment with steady conditions.
By continuously monitoring these trends, investors, real estate professionals, and lenders can make informed decisions about where to allocate capital, when to buy or sell, and how to adjust strategies based on market momentum.
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